Recent forecasts from Météo-France and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16 under mostly overcast skies with light winds and scattered showers. This spring pattern reflects cooler-than-average conditions driven by unstable Atlantic air masses, keeping afternoon highs in the mid-teens rather than the seasonal norm near 18–20°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited potential for brief warming to 17°C if breaks in cloud cover develop, while overnight minima around 9–10°C constrain overall daily peaks. Traders have priced 16°C as the leading outcome at 48.5% implied probability, with 15°C close behind at 36%, consistent with the narrow forecast envelope and minimal upside risk from current steering patterns.