USGS seismic monitoring shows only isolated M5.5+ events early in the May 11–17 window, including a 5.6 quake near the Solomon Islands on May 12, keeping the running total well below the historical global weekly average of 10–12 such events. This subdued pace aligns with typical Poisson variability in tectonic release along subduction zones, with no active aftershock sequences or swarm activity detected in high-frequency regions like the western Pacific. Traders price the tight spread between 5 and 6 outcomes as the most probable resolution because current catalog data through mid-period shows no acceleration, though late-week intensification in the Ring of Fire could still shift totals upward before the May 17 close. USGS daily updates will determine final counts against the magnitude threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 23%
5 21%
4 19%
7 17.0%
$61,810 Vol.
$61,810 Vol.
17 mai 2026
≤3
1%
4
19%
5
25%
6
23%
7
17%
8
5%
9
4%
>9
3%
6 23%
5 21%
4 19%
7 17.0%
$61,810 Vol.
$61,810 Vol.
17 mai 2026
≤3
$30,075 Vol.
1%
4
$4,083 Vol.
19%
5
$4,901 Vol.
25%
6
$656 Vol.
23%
7
$795 Vol.
17%
8
$3,096 Vol.
5%
9
$3,254 Vol.
4%
>9
$14,949 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring shows only isolated M5.5+ events early in the May 11–17 window, including a 5.6 quake near the Solomon Islands on May 12, keeping the running total well below the historical global weekly average of 10–12 such events. This subdued pace aligns with typical Poisson variability in tectonic release along subduction zones, with no active aftershock sequences or swarm activity detected in high-frequency regions like the western Pacific. Traders price the tight spread between 5 and 6 outcomes as the most probable resolution because current catalog data through mid-period shows no acceleration, though late-week intensification in the Ring of Fire could still shift totals upward before the May 17 close. USGS daily updates will determine final counts against the magnitude threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$61,810Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring shows only isolated M5.5+ events early in the May 11–17 window, including a 5.6 quake near the Solomon Islands on May 12, keeping the running total well below the historical global weekly average of 10–12 such events. This subdued pace aligns with typical Poisson variability in tectonic release along subduction zones, with no active aftershock sequences or swarm activity detected in high-frequency regions like the western Pacific. Traders price the tight spread between 5 and 6 outcomes as the most probable resolution because current catalog data through mid-period shows no acceleration, though late-week intensification in the Ring of Fire could still shift totals upward before the May 17 close. USGS daily updates will determine final counts against the magnitude threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$61,810Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS seismic monitoring shows only isolated M5.5+ events early in the May 11–17 window, including a 5.6 quake near the Solomon Islands on May 12, keeping the running total well below the historical global weekly average of 10–12 such events. This subdued pace aligns with typical Poisson variability in tectonic release along subduction zones, with no active aftershock sequences or swarm activity detected in high-frequency regions like the western Pacific. Traders price the tight spread between 5 and 6 outcomes as the most probable resolution because current catalog data through mid-period shows no acceleration, though late-week intensification in the Ring of Fire could still shift totals upward before the May 17 close. USGS daily updates will determine final counts against the magnitude threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions