Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability to a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19, driven by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance showing the season’s cumulative rate stabilizing at 85.2 by Week 15 amid sharply declining weekly laboratory-confirmed rates of 0.5 per 100,000. FluSight ensemble forecasts project continued national declines in hospital admissions through late May as transmission falls below seasonal baselines, consistent with historical late-spring patterns that add minimal new cases. This positioning reflects real-capital aggregation of official surveillance trends and model consensus. An unexpected late-season resurgence or retrospective surveillance revisions could shift the final cumulative figure outside this narrow band, though current data assign low likelihood to such outcomes before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 19, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 19, 2026?
85–90 96.0%
<80 1.3%
80–85 1.0%
95–100 <1%
NOVO
NOVO
22 mai 2026
<80
1%
80–85
1%
85–90
96%
90–95
<1%
95–100
1%
100+
1%
85–90 96.0%
<80 1.3%
80–85 1.0%
95–100 <1%
NOVO
NOVO
22 mai 2026
<80
$758 Vol.
1%
80–85
$2,258 Vol.
1%
85–90
$1,135 Vol.
96%
90–95
$340 Vol.
<1%
95–100
$465 Vol.
1%
100+
$381 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability to a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19, driven by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance showing the season’s cumulative rate stabilizing at 85.2 by Week 15 amid sharply declining weekly laboratory-confirmed rates of 0.5 per 100,000. FluSight ensemble forecasts project continued national declines in hospital admissions through late May as transmission falls below seasonal baselines, consistent with historical late-spring patterns that add minimal new cases. This positioning reflects real-capital aggregation of official surveillance trends and model consensus. An unexpected late-season resurgence or retrospective surveillance revisions could shift the final cumulative figure outside this narrow band, though current data assign low likelihood to such outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Mercado Aberto: May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$5,338Data de Término
22 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability to a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19, driven by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance showing the season’s cumulative rate stabilizing at 85.2 by Week 15 amid sharply declining weekly laboratory-confirmed rates of 0.5 per 100,000. FluSight ensemble forecasts project continued national declines in hospital admissions through late May as transmission falls below seasonal baselines, consistent with historical late-spring patterns that add minimal new cases. This positioning reflects real-capital aggregation of official surveillance trends and model consensus. An unexpected late-season resurgence or retrospective surveillance revisions could shift the final cumulative figure outside this narrow band, though current data assign low likelihood to such outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$5,338Data de Término
22 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 96% implied probability to a cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate of 85–90 per 100,000 through Week 19, driven by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance showing the season’s cumulative rate stabilizing at 85.2 by Week 15 amid sharply declining weekly laboratory-confirmed rates of 0.5 per 100,000. FluSight ensemble forecasts project continued national declines in hospital admissions through late May as transmission falls below seasonal baselines, consistent with historical late-spring patterns that add minimal new cases. This positioning reflects real-capital aggregation of official surveillance trends and model consensus. An unexpected late-season resurgence or retrospective surveillance revisions could shift the final cumulative figure outside this narrow band, though current data assign low likelihood to such outcomes before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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