**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 63.5% implied probability**, reflecting the low global rate of such events—typically zero to two per year on average, with VEI 4 defined by ejecta volumes near 0.1 km³ or plume heights of 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. As of mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity or ongoing episodes at sites like Sheveluch (Kamchatka), where a July plume reached ~12 km, and Dukono (Indonesia), without official VEI assignments meeting the ≥4 threshold. Monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no major escalations or new large events in the first seven-plus months, aligning with historical patterns where significant explosive episodes cluster irregularly. Upcoming forecast updates from regional observatories and any plume-height or deposit-volume confirmations through year-end could shift probabilities toward one event if unrest intensifies at restless systems.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
Quantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ 1.0%
$1,156,055 Vol.
$1,156,055 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
67%
1
20%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ 1.0%
$1,156,055 Vol.
$1,156,055 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
$499,082 Vol.
67%
1
$273,918 Vol.
20%
2
$40,872 Vol.
4%
3
$31,654 Vol.
1%
4
$35,005 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,525 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 63.5% implied probability**, reflecting the low global rate of such events—typically zero to two per year on average, with VEI 4 defined by ejecta volumes near 0.1 km³ or plume heights of 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. As of mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity or ongoing episodes at sites like Sheveluch (Kamchatka), where a July plume reached ~12 km, and Dukono (Indonesia), without official VEI assignments meeting the ≥4 threshold. Monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no major escalations or new large events in the first seven-plus months, aligning with historical patterns where significant explosive episodes cluster irregularly. Upcoming forecast updates from regional observatories and any plume-height or deposit-volume confirmations through year-end could shift probabilities toward one event if unrest intensifies at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,156,055Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 63.5% implied probability**, reflecting the low global rate of such events—typically zero to two per year on average, with VEI 4 defined by ejecta volumes near 0.1 km³ or plume heights of 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. As of mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity or ongoing episodes at sites like Sheveluch (Kamchatka), where a July plume reached ~12 km, and Dukono (Indonesia), without official VEI assignments meeting the ≥4 threshold. Monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no major escalations or new large events in the first seven-plus months, aligning with historical patterns where significant explosive episodes cluster irregularly. Upcoming forecast updates from regional observatories and any plume-height or deposit-volume confirmations through year-end could shift probabilities toward one event if unrest intensifies at restless systems.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,156,055Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 63.5% implied probability**, reflecting the low global rate of such events—typically zero to two per year on average, with VEI 4 defined by ejecta volumes near 0.1 km³ or plume heights of 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. As of mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity or ongoing episodes at sites like Sheveluch (Kamchatka), where a July plume reached ~12 km, and Dukono (Indonesia), without official VEI assignments meeting the ≥4 threshold. Monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no major escalations or new large events in the first seven-plus months, aligning with historical patterns where significant explosive episodes cluster irregularly. Upcoming forecast updates from regional observatories and any plume-height or deposit-volume confirmations through year-end could shift probabilities toward one event if unrest intensifies at restless systems.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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