No VEI ≥4 eruptions have been confirmed in the first 7.5 months of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through mid-August, with 47 total eruptions reported but overwhelmingly lower-intensity or effusive events such as ongoing Kilauea lava fountaining. This absence, paired with typical annual frequencies of one to a few VEI 4 events globally, underpins the market's strong 65% implied probability for zero. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring shows no rapid escalation at high-risk systems, while historical patterns and the logarithmic VEI scale emphasize that explosive thresholds require substantial ash volumes and plume heights rarely reached quickly. New weekly activity reports and any model updates on unrest could shift sentiment if conditions change before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
Quantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
0 67%
1 19%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Vol.
$1,156,063 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
64%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 19%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Vol.
$1,156,063 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
$499,082 Vol.
64%
1
$273,925 Vol.
19%
2
$40,872 Vol.
4%
3
$31,654 Vol.
1%
4
$35,005 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,525 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No VEI ≥4 eruptions have been confirmed in the first 7.5 months of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through mid-August, with 47 total eruptions reported but overwhelmingly lower-intensity or effusive events such as ongoing Kilauea lava fountaining. This absence, paired with typical annual frequencies of one to a few VEI 4 events globally, underpins the market's strong 65% implied probability for zero. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring shows no rapid escalation at high-risk systems, while historical patterns and the logarithmic VEI scale emphasize that explosive thresholds require substantial ash volumes and plume heights rarely reached quickly. New weekly activity reports and any model updates on unrest could shift sentiment if conditions change before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,156,063Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No VEI ≥4 eruptions have been confirmed in the first 7.5 months of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through mid-August, with 47 total eruptions reported but overwhelmingly lower-intensity or effusive events such as ongoing Kilauea lava fountaining. This absence, paired with typical annual frequencies of one to a few VEI 4 events globally, underpins the market's strong 65% implied probability for zero. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring shows no rapid escalation at high-risk systems, while historical patterns and the logarithmic VEI scale emphasize that explosive thresholds require substantial ash volumes and plume heights rarely reached quickly. New weekly activity reports and any model updates on unrest could shift sentiment if conditions change before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,156,063Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No VEI ≥4 eruptions have been confirmed in the first 7.5 months of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through mid-August, with 47 total eruptions reported but overwhelmingly lower-intensity or effusive events such as ongoing Kilauea lava fountaining. This absence, paired with typical annual frequencies of one to a few VEI 4 events globally, underpins the market's strong 65% implied probability for zero. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring shows no rapid escalation at high-risk systems, while historical patterns and the logarithmic VEI scale emphasize that explosive thresholds require substantial ash volumes and plume heights rarely reached quickly. New weekly activity reports and any model updates on unrest could shift sentiment if conditions change before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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