The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
Quantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
0 59%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,173 Vol.
$1,078,173 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
59%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 59%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,173 Vol.
$1,078,173 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
$477,262 Vol.
59%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,075 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$257,964 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,078,173Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,078,173Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market's heavy weighting toward zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the historically low global frequency of such events, which occur on average fewer than once per year according to long-term Smithsonian and USGS records. As of mid-May 2026, official monitoring shows ongoing activity at volcanoes including Semeru and Sheveluch, yet none have produced confirmed ejecta volumes meeting the VEI 4 threshold of at least 0.1 km³. Potential catalysts include heightened seismicity at Axial Seamount and possible unrest at Iwo Jima, but current USGS and Smithsonian data indicate no rapid escalation toward larger explosive phases. Upcoming weekly volcanic activity reports will clarify whether any ongoing plumes or pyroclastic flows reach the necessary scale for market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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