NASA's Artemis program and SpaceX Starship development face persistent technical and scheduling hurdles that underpin the 97% market-implied probability against a crewed lunar landing in 2026. The Artemis III mission, intended as the first human return to the Moon since Apollo, depends on Starship's unproven orbital refueling capability and lunar landing hardware, both still in early testing phases with multiple flight failures recorded in recent years. Regulatory approvals for crewed flights and supply chain constraints further extend realistic timelines beyond 2026. While a rapid acceleration in Starship test cadence or unexpected funding boosts could theoretically compress the schedule, historical patterns of space program delays suggest these barriers remain substantial for traders assessing near-term feasibility.