The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, combined with the short remaining window through December 2026, underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of "No." USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900, with recurrence intervals typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records from major subduction zones. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event, and recent activity—including the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 sequence—has not approached the threshold or signaled accelerating stress accumulation toward a full-margin rupture. While an unforeseen failure in zones such as Cascadia remains theoretically possible given incomplete knowledge of local fault dynamics, current monitoring data and low near-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus against occurrence before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado9.0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
9.0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
Sim
7% chance
$273,727 Vol.
$273,727 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
7% chance
$273,727 Vol.
$273,727 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, combined with the short remaining window through December 2026, underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of "No." USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900, with recurrence intervals typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records from major subduction zones. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event, and recent activity—including the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 sequence—has not approached the threshold or signaled accelerating stress accumulation toward a full-margin rupture. While an unforeseen failure in zones such as Cascadia remains theoretically possible given incomplete knowledge of local fault dynamics, current monitoring data and low near-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus against occurrence before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$273,727Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, combined with the short remaining window through December 2026, underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of "No." USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900, with recurrence intervals typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records from major subduction zones. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event, and recent activity—including the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 sequence—has not approached the threshold or signaled accelerating stress accumulation toward a full-margin rupture. While an unforeseen failure in zones such as Cascadia remains theoretically possible given incomplete knowledge of local fault dynamics, current monitoring data and low near-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus against occurrence before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$273,727Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, combined with the short remaining window through December 2026, underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of "No." USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900, with recurrence intervals typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records from major subduction zones. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event, and recent activity—including the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 sequence—has not approached the threshold or signaled accelerating stress accumulation toward a full-margin rupture. While an unforeseen failure in zones such as Cascadia remains theoretically possible given incomplete knowledge of local fault dynamics, current monitoring data and low near-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus against occurrence before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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