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Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

icon for Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

jun 30

dez 31

jun 30

dez 31

14–16 29%

11–13 27%

17–19 21%

20+ 10.9%

Polymarket

$1,304,920 Vol.

14–16 29%

11–13 27%

17–19 21%

20+ 10.9%

Polymarket

$1,304,920 Vol.

5–7

$70,054 Vol.

1%

8–10

$129,408 Vol.

8%

11–13

$410,306 Vol.

27%

14–16

$183,898 Vol.

29%

17–19

$206,151 Vol.

21%

20+

$62,164 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus clusters around 11–16 total magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, with 14–16 (29%) edging 11–13 (27%), reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing five events through May 13—a M7.1 offshore Sabah, Malaysia (Feb. 22); M7.5 near Tonga (Mar. 24); M7.3 near Vanuatu (Mar. 30); M7.4 near Indonesia (Apr. 1); and M7.4 near Miyako, Japan (Apr. 20). This year-to-date pace projects to about 14 annually, slightly below the long-term global average of 15–20 under the Gutenberg-Richter law, where events follow a Poisson distribution prone to clusters or lulls. A three-week quiet period since the Japan quake bolsters lower bins, while potential aftershocks in Pacific Ring of Fire zones could push toward 17+. USGS continuous monitoring will refine counts daily toward year-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,304,920
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus clusters around 11–16 total magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, with 14–16 (29%) edging 11–13 (27%), reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing five events through May 13—a M7.1 offshore Sabah, Malaysia (Feb. 22); M7.5 near Tonga (Mar. 24); M7.3 near Vanuatu (Mar. 30); M7.4 near Indonesia (Apr. 1); and M7.4 near Miyako, Japan (Apr. 20). This year-to-date pace projects to about 14 annually, slightly below the long-term global average of 15–20 under the Gutenberg-Richter law, where events follow a Poisson distribution prone to clusters or lulls. A three-week quiet period since the Japan quake bolsters lower bins, while potential aftershocks in Pacific Ring of Fire zones could push toward 17+. USGS continuous monitoring will refine counts daily toward year-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,304,920
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14–16" at 29%, followed by "11–13" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" is "14–16" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11–13" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.