Mount Etna has maintained persistent eruptive activity throughout 2026, including a new phase beginning January 1 with fissure vents and lava flows, followed by intensified Strombolian explosions, ash emissions, and additional vents opening in June and early August. The latest episode since August 6–7 has featured lava effusion from multiple vents (around 2,750 m and 2,360 m), strong explosive activity at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching altitudes sufficient to disrupt Catania airport operations for days. Key uncertainties center on whether official INGV assessments will classify any 2026 events at VEI 2 or higher, given Etna’s typical low-to-moderate explosivity and the reliance on tephra volume and plume metrics rather than visual drama alone. Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring, plus any further escalation before December 31, could shift consensus if sustained explosive output or a larger pulse occurs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
0% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna has maintained persistent eruptive activity throughout 2026, including a new phase beginning January 1 with fissure vents and lava flows, followed by intensified Strombolian explosions, ash emissions, and additional vents opening in June and early August. The latest episode since August 6–7 has featured lava effusion from multiple vents (around 2,750 m and 2,360 m), strong explosive activity at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching altitudes sufficient to disrupt Catania airport operations for days.
Key uncertainties center on whether official INGV assessments will classify any 2026 events at VEI 2 or higher, given Etna’s typical low-to-moderate explosivity and the reliance on tephra volume and plume metrics rather than visual drama alone. Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring, plus any further escalation before December 31, could shift consensus if sustained explosive output or a larger pulse occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$21Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna has maintained persistent eruptive activity throughout 2026, including a new phase beginning January 1 with fissure vents and lava flows, followed by intensified Strombolian explosions, ash emissions, and additional vents opening in June and early August. The latest episode since August 6–7 has featured lava effusion from multiple vents (around 2,750 m and 2,360 m), strong explosive activity at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching altitudes sufficient to disrupt Catania airport operations for days.
Key uncertainties center on whether official INGV assessments will classify any 2026 events at VEI 2 or higher, given Etna’s typical low-to-moderate explosivity and the reliance on tephra volume and plume metrics rather than visual drama alone. Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring, plus any further escalation before December 31, could shift consensus if sustained explosive output or a larger pulse occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$21Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna has maintained persistent eruptive activity throughout 2026, including a new phase beginning January 1 with fissure vents and lava flows, followed by intensified Strombolian explosions, ash emissions, and additional vents opening in June and early August. The latest episode since August 6–7 has featured lava effusion from multiple vents (around 2,750 m and 2,360 m), strong explosive activity at Voragine crater, and ash plumes reaching altitudes sufficient to disrupt Catania airport operations for days. Key uncertainties center on whether official INGV assessments will classify any 2026 events at VEI 2 or higher, given Etna’s typical low-to-moderate explosivity and the reliance on tephra volume and plume metrics rather than visual drama alone. Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring, plus any further escalation before December 31, could shift consensus if sustained explosive output or a larger pulse occurs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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