Recent forecast model runs indicate a moderating air mass arriving over central Poland, with Warsaw expected to see a daytime high near 21°C on August 18 amid increasing cloud cover and possible early showers. This follows hotter conditions earlier in the weekend, as steering winds shift northwest and limit afternoon heating. Official guidance from agencies highlights modest uncertainty in exact peak timing and cloud breaks, which could allow 22°C or hold the maximum to 19°C. Traders appear to weight the cooler side of the range given the precipitation signal and historical August variability, producing closely matched probabilities around 19–21°C. Updated model cycles and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.