Official forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position 34°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s August 16 maximum, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that favor strong daytime heating in the central Iberian plateau. Recent model runs cluster daytime peaks near 33–35°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August highs reach approximately 32°C. Ensemble spread and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture introduce limited uncertainty, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (53.5%) and 35°C (28.0%) while keeping higher thresholds below 1% probability. Updated guidance ahead of the daily maximum will refine these implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 16 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 16 de agosto?
34°C 56%
35°C 29%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NOVO
$10,929 Vol.
NOVO
$10,929 Vol.
16 ago 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
8%
34°C
56%
35°C
29%
36°C
6%
37°C or higher
1%
34°C 56%
35°C 29%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NOVO
$10,929 Vol.
NOVO
$10,929 Vol.
16 ago 2026
27°C or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$355 Vol.
2%
33°C
$929 Vol.
8%
34°C
$2,912 Vol.
56%
35°C
$3,502 Vol.
29%
36°C
$1,667 Vol.
6%
37°C or higher
$221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position 34°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s August 16 maximum, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that favor strong daytime heating in the central Iberian plateau. Recent model runs cluster daytime peaks near 33–35°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August highs reach approximately 32°C. Ensemble spread and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture introduce limited uncertainty, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (53.5%) and 35°C (28.0%) while keeping higher thresholds below 1% probability. Updated guidance ahead of the daily maximum will refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,929Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position 34°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s August 16 maximum, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that favor strong daytime heating in the central Iberian plateau. Recent model runs cluster daytime peaks near 33–35°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August highs reach approximately 32°C. Ensemble spread and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture introduce limited uncertainty, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (53.5%) and 35°C (28.0%) while keeping higher thresholds below 1% probability. Updated guidance ahead of the daily maximum will refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,929Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position 34°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s August 16 maximum, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies that favor strong daytime heating in the central Iberian plateau. Recent model runs cluster daytime peaks near 33–35°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average August highs reach approximately 32°C. Ensemble spread and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture introduce limited uncertainty, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (53.5%) and 35°C (28.0%) while keeping higher thresholds below 1% probability. Updated guidance ahead of the daily maximum will refine these implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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