Ongoing low-level SARS-CoV-2 circulation, with CDC data showing very low emergency department visits (0.3%) and WHO reports of stable global activity (3.8% test positivity and roughly 22,000 cases over 28 days through mid-July 2026), underpins the 96% market-implied probability against a new pandemic. Widespread population immunity from prior infections and vaccination, combined with the absence of a novel, highly virulent variant driving exponential growth or severe outcomes, maintains controlled transmission despite modest summer increases (Rt around 1.08). A realistic shift could occur only if a new strain with substantial immune escape and elevated pathogenicity emerges and overwhelms surveillance thresholds before year-end.