Trader consensus implies a 94.5% probability of no new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any World Health Organization declaration of a public health emergency of international concern for a novel coronavirus distinct from SARS-CoV-2, as required for market resolution. Robust surveillance through WHO's expanded CoViNet network and CDC dashboards detects no sustained human-to-human transmission of qualifying pathogens, with COVID-19 persisting endemically amid declining reproduction number estimates and routine wastewater monitoring. Recent April discoveries of East African bat alphacoronaviruses capable of entering human lung cells via CEACAM6 receptors highlight potential zoonotic risks, though these milder alpha strains lack pandemic precedents. Shifts could arise from undetected spillovers prompting rapid escalation, with key updates from WHO's May vaccine antigen deliberations ahead.