**Recent detections and containment efforts shape the market.** As of mid-September 2026, the USDA has confirmed roughly 50 New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) cases in the U.S. since the first detection in a Texas calf on June 3, with only three active cases reported. Nearly all occurred in Texas, plus isolated findings in New Mexico; the parasite causes myiasis when larvae infest open wounds in livestock and other warm-blooded animals. Texas officials issued emergency quarantines and movement restrictions across multiple counties, while Governor Abbott’s statewide disaster proclamation (updated June 2026) remains in effect. Federally, the HHS declared circumstances justifying emergency use authorizations in August 2025, enabling FDA EUAs for animal treatments, and USDA/APHIS has deployed expanded surveillance (including traps and drone flights), animal movement controls, and sterile fly releases—producing and dispersing tens of millions of sterile insects weekly via new facilities in Texas and Mexico. CDC activated its emergency operations center in June 2026, but the risk to the general public and food supply remains low per official assessments, with no locally acquired human cases. **Market-implied odds reflect limited escalation.** Recent case detections near the border (including a September 17 horse case in New Mexico) have prompted added local surveillance within a 12.4-mile radius, yet port reopenings for Mexican livestock imports are proceeding on schedule (e.g., Santa Teresa on September 24). Historical precedent shows the U.S. eradicated the pest decades ago through similar sterile insect techniques, and current responses rely on existing authorities, state actions, and targeted funding rather than a broader presidential national emergency declaration. Traders monitor USDA case counts, model updates on spread risk, and any shift in federal response posture for signals that could alter consensus.