A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
2º mais quente 49%
3º mais quente 49%
4º ou inferior 49%
Mais quente 46%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
46%
2º mais quente
49%
3º mais quente
49%
4º ou inferior
49%
2º mais quente 49%
3º mais quente 49%
4º ou inferior 49%
Mais quente 46%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
$0 Vol.
46%
2º mais quente
$0 Vol.
49%
3º mais quente
$0 Vol.
49%
4º ou inferior
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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