The absence of any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake through mid-August 2026, with the year’s largest event a 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June per USGS records, anchors trader consensus on 7.9 or below at 66%. Multiple 7.5 events in Tonga, Venezuela, and elsewhere align with typical annual maxima driven by subduction-zone activity along the Ring of Fire, where moment magnitude scales reflect accumulated strain release rather than frequent extremes. Historical USGS catalogs show 8+ quakes remain infrequent in any single year, though Indonesia’s recent 7.7 and Colombia’s 7.4 underscore ongoing monitoring. With four-plus months remaining, updated USGS catalogs and regional fault analyses will shape any late shifts in implied probabilities for rarer 8.4+ outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMaior magnitude de terramoto em 2026?
Maior magnitude de terramoto em 2026?
7,9 ou menos 66%
8,0 – 8,1 12%
8,2 – 8,3 12%
8,6 – 8,7 7%
NOVO
NOVO
3 jan 2027
7,9 ou menos
66%
8,0 – 8,1
12%
8,2 – 8,3
12%
8,4 – 8,5
5%
8,6 – 8,7
7%
8,8 – 8,9
6%
9,0 ou mais
6%
7,9 ou menos 66%
8,0 – 8,1 12%
8,2 – 8,3 12%
8,6 – 8,7 7%
NOVO
NOVO
3 jan 2027
7,9 ou menos
$97 Vol.
66%
8,0 – 8,1
$40 Vol.
12%
8,2 – 8,3
$55 Vol.
12%
8,4 – 8,5
$40 Vol.
5%
8,6 – 8,7
$60 Vol.
7%
8,8 – 8,9
$40 Vol.
6%
9,0 ou mais
$27 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The absence of any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake through mid-August 2026, with the year’s largest event a 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June per USGS records, anchors trader consensus on 7.9 or below at 66%. Multiple 7.5 events in Tonga, Venezuela, and elsewhere align with typical annual maxima driven by subduction-zone activity along the Ring of Fire, where moment magnitude scales reflect accumulated strain release rather than frequent extremes. Historical USGS catalogs show 8+ quakes remain infrequent in any single year, though Indonesia’s recent 7.7 and Colombia’s 7.4 underscore ongoing monitoring. With four-plus months remaining, updated USGS catalogs and regional fault analyses will shape any late shifts in implied probabilities for rarer 8.4+ outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$357Data de Término
4 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The absence of any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake through mid-August 2026, with the year’s largest event a 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June per USGS records, anchors trader consensus on 7.9 or below at 66%. Multiple 7.5 events in Tonga, Venezuela, and elsewhere align with typical annual maxima driven by subduction-zone activity along the Ring of Fire, where moment magnitude scales reflect accumulated strain release rather than frequent extremes. Historical USGS catalogs show 8+ quakes remain infrequent in any single year, though Indonesia’s recent 7.7 and Colombia’s 7.4 underscore ongoing monitoring. With four-plus months remaining, updated USGS catalogs and regional fault analyses will shape any late shifts in implied probabilities for rarer 8.4+ outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$357Data de Término
4 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The absence of any magnitude 8.0+ earthquake through mid-August 2026, with the year’s largest event a 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June per USGS records, anchors trader consensus on 7.9 or below at 66%. Multiple 7.5 events in Tonga, Venezuela, and elsewhere align with typical annual maxima driven by subduction-zone activity along the Ring of Fire, where moment magnitude scales reflect accumulated strain release rather than frequent extremes. Historical USGS catalogs show 8+ quakes remain infrequent in any single year, though Indonesia’s recent 7.7 and Colombia’s 7.4 underscore ongoing monitoring. With four-plus months remaining, updated USGS catalogs and regional fault analyses will shape any late shifts in implied probabilities for rarer 8.4+ outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions