Congressional gridlock and a preference for executive-led approaches have kept comprehensive federal AI safety legislation stalled through mid-2026. The Trump administration’s March 2026 National Policy Framework emphasized light-touch rules, industry standards, and preemption of state measures rather than new mandates, while recent bipartisan proposals such as the CHATBOT Act and American Leadership in AI Act remain in early committee stages without floor votes. State-level rules in California, Texas, Colorado, and New York have advanced instead, reducing pressure for a single national bill. Traders assign a 70.5% probability to no enactment before 2027 because these dynamics—combined with divided priorities over child-safety provisions, liability frameworks, and preemption—make timely passage unlikely absent a major catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$98,190 Vol.
$98,190 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$98,190 Vol.
$98,190 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional gridlock and a preference for executive-led approaches have kept comprehensive federal AI safety legislation stalled through mid-2026. The Trump administration’s March 2026 National Policy Framework emphasized light-touch rules, industry standards, and preemption of state measures rather than new mandates, while recent bipartisan proposals such as the CHATBOT Act and American Leadership in AI Act remain in early committee stages without floor votes. State-level rules in California, Texas, Colorado, and New York have advanced instead, reducing pressure for a single national bill. Traders assign a 70.5% probability to no enactment before 2027 because these dynamics—combined with divided priorities over child-safety provisions, liability frameworks, and preemption—make timely passage unlikely absent a major catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$98,190Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional gridlock and a preference for executive-led approaches have kept comprehensive federal AI safety legislation stalled through mid-2026. The Trump administration’s March 2026 National Policy Framework emphasized light-touch rules, industry standards, and preemption of state measures rather than new mandates, while recent bipartisan proposals such as the CHATBOT Act and American Leadership in AI Act remain in early committee stages without floor votes. State-level rules in California, Texas, Colorado, and New York have advanced instead, reducing pressure for a single national bill. Traders assign a 70.5% probability to no enactment before 2027 because these dynamics—combined with divided priorities over child-safety provisions, liability frameworks, and preemption—make timely passage unlikely absent a major catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$98,190Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional gridlock and a preference for executive-led approaches have kept comprehensive federal AI safety legislation stalled through mid-2026. The Trump administration’s March 2026 National Policy Framework emphasized light-touch rules, industry standards, and preemption of state measures rather than new mandates, while recent bipartisan proposals such as the CHATBOT Act and American Leadership in AI Act remain in early committee stages without floor votes. State-level rules in California, Texas, Colorado, and New York have advanced instead, reducing pressure for a single national bill. Traders assign a 70.5% probability to no enactment before 2027 because these dynamics—combined with divided priorities over child-safety provisions, liability frameworks, and preemption—make timely passage unlikely absent a major catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions