Traders have consolidated around claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 98.4% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated edge in recent large language model benchmarks for complex reasoning and instruction following without style constraints. Anthropic’s latest Opus iteration has shown consistent gains in capability evaluations compared with prior versions, reinforcing its lead in head-to-head testing. This market sentiment reflects real capital backing for the model’s current technical positioning ahead of May 16 resolution. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected competitive releases, such as a new Gemini or GPT variant delivering superior benchmark results, or any last-minute capability disclosures that alter the evaluation landscape before the cutoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoBest AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)
Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.4%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
Other <1%
$30,427 Vol.
$30,427 Vol.
16 mai 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
98%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
Other
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.4%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
Other <1%
$30,427 Vol.
$30,427 Vol.
16 mai 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$8,961 Vol.
98%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$5,168 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$2,089 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,896 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,605 Vol.
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,863 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have consolidated around claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 98.4% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated edge in recent large language model benchmarks for complex reasoning and instruction following without style constraints. Anthropic’s latest Opus iteration has shown consistent gains in capability evaluations compared with prior versions, reinforcing its lead in head-to-head testing. This market sentiment reflects real capital backing for the model’s current technical positioning ahead of May 16 resolution. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected competitive releases, such as a new Gemini or GPT variant delivering superior benchmark results, or any last-minute capability disclosures that alter the evaluation landscape before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$30,427Data de Término
16 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have consolidated around claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 98.4% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated edge in recent large language model benchmarks for complex reasoning and instruction following without style constraints. Anthropic’s latest Opus iteration has shown consistent gains in capability evaluations compared with prior versions, reinforcing its lead in head-to-head testing. This market sentiment reflects real capital backing for the model’s current technical positioning ahead of May 16 resolution. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected competitive releases, such as a new Gemini or GPT variant delivering superior benchmark results, or any last-minute capability disclosures that alter the evaluation landscape before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$30,427Data de Término
16 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have consolidated around claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 98.4% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated edge in recent large language model benchmarks for complex reasoning and instruction following without style constraints. Anthropic’s latest Opus iteration has shown consistent gains in capability evaluations compared with prior versions, reinforcing its lead in head-to-head testing. This market sentiment reflects real capital backing for the model’s current technical positioning ahead of May 16 resolution. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected competitive releases, such as a new Gemini or GPT variant delivering superior benchmark results, or any last-minute capability disclosures that alter the evaluation landscape before the cutoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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