Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data showing April 2026 at 1.43°C—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño emergence by mid-year per NOAA and WMO forecasts. Multi-model ensembles predict above-normal temperatures for May–June–July 2026, driven by persistent marine heat in the Pacific and North Atlantic, though monthly variability and lack of full El Niño intensification introduce uncertainty, tempering odds for higher bins above 1.20°C. Historical May climatology and recent slight cooling from winter peaks support the clustered sentiment around 1.10–1.19°C; watch for Copernicus' end-of-May bulletin and updated dynamical model runs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 45%
1.10–1.14ºC 26%
<1.10ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
$20,885 Vol.
$20,885 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
26%
1.15–1.19ºC
45%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
5%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 45%
1.10–1.14ºC 26%
<1.10ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
$20,885 Vol.
$20,885 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$9,405 Vol.
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
$734 Vol.
26%
1.15–1.19ºC
$2,111 Vol.
45%
1.20–1.24ºC
$775 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,790 Vol.
5%
>1.29ºC
$5,069 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data showing April 2026 at 1.43°C—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño emergence by mid-year per NOAA and WMO forecasts. Multi-model ensembles predict above-normal temperatures for May–June–July 2026, driven by persistent marine heat in the Pacific and North Atlantic, though monthly variability and lack of full El Niño intensification introduce uncertainty, tempering odds for higher bins above 1.20°C. Historical May climatology and recent slight cooling from winter peaks support the clustered sentiment around 1.10–1.19°C; watch for Copernicus' end-of-May bulletin and updated dynamical model runs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$20,885Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data showing April 2026 at 1.43°C—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño emergence by mid-year per NOAA and WMO forecasts. Multi-model ensembles predict above-normal temperatures for May–June–July 2026, driven by persistent marine heat in the Pacific and North Atlantic, though monthly variability and lack of full El Niño intensification introduce uncertainty, tempering odds for higher bins above 1.20°C. Historical May climatology and recent slight cooling from winter peaks support the clustered sentiment around 1.10–1.19°C; watch for Copernicus' end-of-May bulletin and updated dynamical model runs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,885Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data showing April 2026 at 1.43°C—the fourth-warmest April on record—amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño emergence by mid-year per NOAA and WMO forecasts. Multi-model ensembles predict above-normal temperatures for May–June–July 2026, driven by persistent marine heat in the Pacific and North Atlantic, though monthly variability and lack of full El Niño intensification introduce uncertainty, tempering odds for higher bins above 1.20°C. Historical May climatology and recent slight cooling from winter peaks support the clustered sentiment around 1.10–1.19°C; watch for Copernicus' end-of-May bulletin and updated dynamical model runs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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