Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 62-67°F lows for New York City on May 17, driven by the latest NOAA and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF showing forecast lows in the low-to-mid 60s near Central Park. Recent 24-hour updates indicate a developing upper-level ridge promoting mild southerly flow and partial cloud cover overnight, limiting radiative cooling that could push temperatures lower, while light winds around 5-10 mph may enhance mixing for slightly higher readings. Differentiating factors include the precise evolution of evening cloudiness—persistent stratus raises lows toward 66-67°F, while clearing skies favor 62-63°F—and urban heat island effects in measurements. New 00Z model runs expected within hours could refine this uncertainty before the overnight minimum.