Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate moderate uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling over Seoul for May 19, with model spreads centering the daily minimum near 15–16°C amid variable low-level moisture and light northerly flow. Historical climatology for mid-May shows typical lows between 12°C and 16°C at the official station, while current guidance highlights potential for stronger cooling under clearer skies versus warmer advection if a weak frontal system arrives. Trader sentiment reflects this tight distribution, with the three leading outcomes capturing nearly two-thirds of implied probability because small shifts in 48-hour model runs could easily move the final reading across the 14–17°C range.