Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, projecting Seoul's May 16 high temperature around 25-26°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and strong daytime insolation. This positions 26°C or higher at 41% implied probability, edging out 25°C at 32.5%, amid a warmer-than-average spring 2026 with recent clear conditions on May 14 reaching 26°C. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification in Seoul, potential afternoon cumulus cloud development suppressing peaks, and minor model divergences within 2°C uncertainty bands typical two days out. Watch KMA short-term updates every 6-12 hours for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
26°C or higher 37%
25°C 32%
24°C 20%
23°C 6%
$27,210 Vol.
$27,210 Vol.
16°C ou menos
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
6%
24°C
20%
25°C
32%
26°C or higher
37%
26°C or higher 37%
25°C 32%
24°C 20%
23°C 6%
$27,210 Vol.
$27,210 Vol.
16°C ou menos
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
6%
24°C
20%
25°C
32%
26°C or higher
37%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, projecting Seoul's May 16 high temperature around 25-26°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and strong daytime insolation. This positions 26°C or higher at 41% implied probability, edging out 25°C at 32.5%, amid a warmer-than-average spring 2026 with recent clear conditions on May 14 reaching 26°C. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification in Seoul, potential afternoon cumulus cloud development suppressing peaks, and minor model divergences within 2°C uncertainty bands typical two days out. Watch KMA short-term updates every 6-12 hours for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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