The India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s latest forecast, issued May 15, pins Lucknow's maximum temperature at 40°C on May 16 under clear skies with no heatwave warnings, anchoring trader consensus at 96.3% implied probability for 41°C or below. This reflects stable pre-monsoon high-pressure conditions suppressing convective activity and aligning with recent observations—May 14's high of 37.3°C fell 2.5°C below normal—amid May climatological averages around 41°C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification risk from dry northerly winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies boosting solar heating beyond 41°C or minor forecast revisions in tomorrow's IMD update, though historical analogs suggest low likelihood as resolution nears via official airport measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 16?
41°C or below 97.8%
42°C 2.5%
43°C 1.1%
44°C <1%
$11,881 Vol.
$11,881 Vol.
41°C or below
98%
42°C
3%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 97.8%
42°C 2.5%
43°C 1.1%
44°C <1%
$11,881 Vol.
$11,881 Vol.
41°C or below
98%
42°C
3%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 14, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s latest forecast, issued May 15, pins Lucknow's maximum temperature at 40°C on May 16 under clear skies with no heatwave warnings, anchoring trader consensus at 96.3% implied probability for 41°C or below. This reflects stable pre-monsoon high-pressure conditions suppressing convective activity and aligning with recent observations—May 14's high of 37.3°C fell 2.5°C below normal—amid May climatological averages around 41°C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification risk from dry northerly winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected prolonged clear skies boosting solar heating beyond 41°C or minor forecast revisions in tomorrow's IMD update, though historical analogs suggest low likelihood as resolution nears via official airport measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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