The India Meteorological Department’s short-range forecast for May 17 positions Lucknow’s maximum temperature near 41 °C under mainly clear skies, aligning with the dominant market-implied outcome. This guidance reflects recent stabilization after early-May rainfall suppressed peaks into the mid-30s, while climatological baselines for mid-May in the Indo-Gangetic plain place typical highs between 39 °C and 42 °C. Current model consensus shows limited scope for strong upper-level support or moisture incursion that could drive rapid intensification above 42 °C, though minor forecast revisions in the final 24 hours remain possible given pre-monsoon variability. Traders are therefore pricing the highest probability on the 41 °C-or-below bracket, consistent with official guidance and the narrow historical range for the date.