Recent ensemble forecasts from global models and the Saudi National Center for Meteorology indicate Jeddah’s May 18 maximum will likely reach 45–47 °C, driven by intense solar insolation over the Red Sea coastal plain, minimal cloud cover, and light northwesterly winds that limit moderating sea-breeze effects. With the region in its pre-monsoon warming phase, surface temperatures have already climbed into the low 40s this week, consistent with historical late-May peaks near 39 °C but elevated by reduced atmospheric moisture and stronger daytime heating. Small differences among model runs—particularly in boundary-layer mixing depth and exact wind timing—account for the tight clustering around 45 °C (19 %), 46 °C (28.5 %), and 47 °C (23.5 %), while the 16.5 % probability on 48 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty if subsidence strengthens further. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will sharpen these probabilities ahead of market resolution.