Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 31°C (36%) and 32°C (40%) as the highest temperature at official Meteorological Service Singapore stations on May 15, driven by the latest fortnightly outlook forecasting daily maximums of 33–35°C under prevailing inter-monsoon conditions with light, variable winds. However, expected afternoon thundery showers over parts of the island—potentially extending into evenings—pose the primary risk of capping peaks through increased cloud cover and convective cooling, tempering hotter outcomes (33°C+ at 10.5%). Recent late-April highs reached 35.5°C at stations like Paya Lebar amid drier spells, but May's above-average rainfall forecast aligns with historical averages near 32°C. New 24-hour updates from NEA this afternoon could refine shower timing and intensity, key variables differentiating the leading bins.