Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 19 de maio?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 19 de maio?
15°C ou mais 39%
10°C 25%
11°C 23%
9°C 20%
NOVO
NOVO
19 mai 2026
5°C ou menos
1%
6°C
8%
7°C
15%
8°C
19%
9°C
20%
10°C
25%
11°C
23%
12°C
20%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C ou mais
39%
15°C ou mais 39%
10°C 25%
11°C 23%
9°C 20%
NOVO
NOVO
19 mai 2026
5°C ou menos
$10 Vol.
1%
6°C
$10 Vol.
8%
7°C
$0 Vol.
15%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C ou mais
$31 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$51Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles for Paris's overnight low on May 19, with implied probabilities nearly split between 15°C or higher (50%) and the 6–14°C range (45.5% each), against climatological May 19 norms of around 10°C. Recent cool, unstable weather through May 11–17, featuring morning lows of 7–8°C and showers per Météo-France guidance, has tempered expectations, but ECMWF and GFS models now diverge on a possible high-pressure ridge bringing clearer skies and southerly flow for late-week warming. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence versus radiative cooling under high pressure; daily model updates through May 18 will clarify the balance before resolution based on official Paris observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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