Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 18 de maio?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 18 de maio?
8°C 20%
10°C 20%
9°C 16%
7°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
18 mai 2026
2°C ou menos
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
3%
7°C
11%
8°C
20%
9°C
25%
10°C
20%
11°C
9%
12°C ou mais
5%
8°C 20%
10°C 20%
9°C 16%
7°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
18 mai 2026
2°C ou menos
$62 Vol.
1%
3°C
$57 Vol.
1%
4°C
$10 Vol.
3%
5°C
$10 Vol.
3%
6°C
$10 Vol.
3%
7°C
$22 Vol.
11%
8°C
$10 Vol.
20%
9°C
$29 Vol.
25%
10°C
$10 Vol.
20%
11°C
$10 Vol.
9%
12°C ou mais
$118 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$348Data de Término
18 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$348Data de Término
18 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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