Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C in Moscow on May 15, driven by real-time observations from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center (Roshydromet) showing daytime peaks reaching exactly that mark under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly winds around 3-5 m/s. Short-range forecast models, including those from GFS and ECMWF analogs, converge on this outcome, reflecting stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May climatology where averages hover near 18-20°C but current warmth aligns with recent +19-24°C projections. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon convective burst from forecasted thunderstorms pushing briefly to 24°C or an official station revision, though evening cooling and cloud cover make this improbable as the day nears resolution. Final data from Moscow's VDNKh reference station will confirm.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 15?
23°C 100.0%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C or higher <1%
$56,137 Vol.
$56,137 Vol.
15 mai 2026
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
23°C 100.0%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C or higher <1%
$56,137 Vol.
$56,137 Vol.
15 mai 2026
23°C
$7,513 Vol.
100%
24°C
$5,705 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$6,070 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$6,976 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C in Moscow on May 15, driven by real-time observations from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center (Roshydromet) showing daytime peaks reaching exactly that mark under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly winds around 3-5 m/s. Short-range forecast models, including those from GFS and ECMWF analogs, converge on this outcome, reflecting stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May climatology where averages hover near 18-20°C but current warmth aligns with recent +19-24°C projections. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon convective burst from forecasted thunderstorms pushing briefly to 24°C or an official station revision, though evening cooling and cloud cover make this improbable as the day nears resolution. Final data from Moscow's VDNKh reference station will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volume
$56,137Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C in Moscow on May 15, driven by real-time observations from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center (Roshydromet) showing daytime peaks reaching exactly that mark under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly winds around 3-5 m/s. Short-range forecast models, including those from GFS and ECMWF analogs, converge on this outcome, reflecting stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May climatology where averages hover near 18-20°C but current warmth aligns with recent +19-24°C projections. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon convective burst from forecasted thunderstorms pushing briefly to 24°C or an official station revision, though evening cooling and cloud cover make this improbable as the day nears resolution. Final data from Moscow's VDNKh reference station will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$56,137Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C in Moscow on May 15, driven by real-time observations from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center (Roshydromet) showing daytime peaks reaching exactly that mark under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly winds around 3-5 m/s. Short-range forecast models, including those from GFS and ECMWF analogs, converge on this outcome, reflecting stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May climatology where averages hover near 18-20°C but current warmth aligns with recent +19-24°C projections. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon convective burst from forecasted thunderstorms pushing briefly to 24°C or an official station revision, though evening cooling and cloud cover make this improbable as the day nears resolution. Final data from Moscow's VDNKh reference station will confirm.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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