Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around a 20-21°C high for Istanbul on May 15, with 20°C and 21°C each at 31.5% and 31.0% implied probabilities amid minor model spreads. This positioning stems from yesterday's updated runs showing consistent afternoon peaks under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, tempered by Black Sea influences and urban heat island effects that could nudge exact readings across the 20-22°C threshold. Historical mid-May averages hover near 21°C, but short-range uncertainty persists from boundary layer mixing variations and potential sea breeze intensification. Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly observations today will sharpen resolution, as official airport station data determines the final outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
20°C 32%
21°C 31%
22°C or higher 21%
19°C 16%
$15,216 Vol.
$15,216 Vol.
15 mai 2026
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
16%
20°C
32%
21°C
31%
22°C or higher
21%
20°C 32%
21°C 31%
22°C or higher 21%
19°C 16%
$15,216 Vol.
$15,216 Vol.
15 mai 2026
13°C
$750 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,867 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,015 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,354 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,685 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,979 Vol.
5%
19°C
$1,315 Vol.
16%
20°C
$1,204 Vol.
32%
21°C
$548 Vol.
31%
22°C or higher
$975 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around a 20-21°C high for Istanbul on May 15, with 20°C and 21°C each at 31.5% and 31.0% implied probabilities amid minor model spreads. This positioning stems from yesterday's updated runs showing consistent afternoon peaks under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, tempered by Black Sea influences and urban heat island effects that could nudge exact readings across the 20-22°C threshold. Historical mid-May averages hover near 21°C, but short-range uncertainty persists from boundary layer mixing variations and potential sea breeze intensification. Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly observations today will sharpen resolution, as official airport station data determines the final outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$15,216Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around a 20-21°C high for Istanbul on May 15, with 20°C and 21°C each at 31.5% and 31.0% implied probabilities amid minor model spreads. This positioning stems from yesterday's updated runs showing consistent afternoon peaks under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, tempered by Black Sea influences and urban heat island effects that could nudge exact readings across the 20-22°C threshold. Historical mid-May averages hover near 21°C, but short-range uncertainty persists from boundary layer mixing variations and potential sea breeze intensification. Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly observations today will sharpen resolution, as official airport station data determines the final outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,216Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around a 20-21°C high for Istanbul on May 15, with 20°C and 21°C each at 31.5% and 31.0% implied probabilities amid minor model spreads. This positioning stems from yesterday's updated runs showing consistent afternoon peaks under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, tempered by Black Sea influences and urban heat island effects that could nudge exact readings across the 20-22°C threshold. Historical mid-May averages hover near 21°C, but short-range uncertainty persists from boundary layer mixing variations and potential sea breeze intensification. Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly observations today will sharpen resolution, as official airport station data determines the final outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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