Trader sentiment leans toward "No" at 64% implied probability for SpaceX achieving fully reusable Starship before 2027, driven by the lack of demonstrated rapid reusability despite accelerating V3 development. On May 12, SpaceX completed the first full fueling test of Starship V3 at Starbase, a key step toward its maiden launch expected soon, but prior flights through Integrated Flight Test 11 in late 2025 achieved only partial milestones like booster boostbacks and upper-stage reentries without reliable tower catches or quick turnarounds for the Super Heavy booster and Starship vehicle. Elon Musk voiced high confidence in V3 for full reusability in February, yet iterative testing, supply chain scaling, and FAA licensing delays echo historical precedents, leaving traders cautious ahead of high-cadence orbital demonstrations needed to resolve the market.