SpaceX's recent Starship Flight 13 success with the V3 architecture—featuring Raptor 3 engines, advanced avionics, and Starlink V3 deployment—has bolstered trader confidence in achieving full reusability by end-2026, supporting the 55% Yes odds. The booster has already demonstrated tower catches via Mechazilla arms in prior tests, while Flight 14 targets the first upper-stage ship catch attempt as early as August, contingent on regulatory approval. Elon Musk's statements emphasize demonstrating rapid recovery of both stages and 100+ ton orbital delivery this year, though technical hurdles like heat shield performance, in-space relights, and flight cadence scaling introduce meaningful uncertainty that keeps the market closely contested.