With four successful Falcon 9 orbital launches already completed in early May—including Starlink missions, CAS500-2 rideshare, and NROL-172 from Vandenberg Space Force Base—traders price a total of 12 at 43% implied probability, reflecting SpaceX's high-cadence reliability (over 99% success rate historically) and a packed manifest featuring today's NASA CRS-34 resupply from Cape Canaveral, Globalstar 2-R, multiple Starlinks, and Starship's twelfth flight test around May 19-20 from Starbase. The close contest with ≤8 at 37.9% stems from recent CRS-34 delays due to technical checks and potential weather constraints on polar orbits or range safety, alongside Starship's orbital test uncertainties; new booster readiness data and daily manifest updates could tip sentiment toward higher totals.