Traders' overwhelming 98.9% implied probability for the 85–90 per 100,000 bin reflects CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data from the Week 17 FluView report, showing a cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate of 86.0 per 100,000 population as of early May 2026—squarely within the range and consistent with the 2025-2026 season's moderate activity levels driven by H3N2 dominance and stabilizing weekly admission rates around 0.5–0.7 per 100,000. This marks the third-highest cumulative rate in recent seasons, aligning with historical peaks amid vaccination coverage and variant circulation patterns. While preliminary figures carry reporting delays typical of CDC's 13-state network, realistic challenges include upward revisions from late-submitted hospital data pushing toward 90–95 or minor downward adjustments if underreporting is corrected, with finalized rates expected in upcoming FluView updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
85–90 98.8%
90–95 1.6%
95–100 <1%
<80 <1%
$14,346 Vol.
$14,346 Vol.
15 mai 2026
<80
<1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
99%
90–95
2%
95–100
<1%
100+
<1%
85–90 98.8%
90–95 1.6%
95–100 <1%
<80 <1%
$14,346 Vol.
$14,346 Vol.
15 mai 2026
<80
$1,606 Vol.
<1%
80–85
$1,729 Vol.
<1%
85–90
$5,728 Vol.
99%
90–95
$3,413 Vol.
2%
95–100
$1,056 Vol.
<1%
100+
$815 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders' overwhelming 98.9% implied probability for the 85–90 per 100,000 bin reflects CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data from the Week 17 FluView report, showing a cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate of 86.0 per 100,000 population as of early May 2026—squarely within the range and consistent with the 2025-2026 season's moderate activity levels driven by H3N2 dominance and stabilizing weekly admission rates around 0.5–0.7 per 100,000. This marks the third-highest cumulative rate in recent seasons, aligning with historical peaks amid vaccination coverage and variant circulation patterns. While preliminary figures carry reporting delays typical of CDC's 13-state network, realistic challenges include upward revisions from late-submitted hospital data pushing toward 90–95 or minor downward adjustments if underreporting is corrected, with finalized rates expected in upcoming FluView updates.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Mercado Aberto: May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$14,346Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders' overwhelming 98.9% implied probability for the 85–90 per 100,000 bin reflects CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data from the Week 17 FluView report, showing a cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate of 86.0 per 100,000 population as of early May 2026—squarely within the range and consistent with the 2025-2026 season's moderate activity levels driven by H3N2 dominance and stabilizing weekly admission rates around 0.5–0.7 per 100,000. This marks the third-highest cumulative rate in recent seasons, aligning with historical peaks amid vaccination coverage and variant circulation patterns. While preliminary figures carry reporting delays typical of CDC's 13-state network, realistic challenges include upward revisions from late-submitted hospital data pushing toward 90–95 or minor downward adjustments if underreporting is corrected, with finalized rates expected in upcoming FluView updates.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$14,346Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' overwhelming 98.9% implied probability for the 85–90 per 100,000 bin reflects CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data from the Week 17 FluView report, showing a cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate of 86.0 per 100,000 population as of early May 2026—squarely within the range and consistent with the 2025-2026 season's moderate activity levels driven by H3N2 dominance and stabilizing weekly admission rates around 0.5–0.7 per 100,000. This marks the third-highest cumulative rate in recent seasons, aligning with historical peaks amid vaccination coverage and variant circulation patterns. While preliminary figures carry reporting delays typical of CDC's 13-state network, realistic challenges include upward revisions from late-submitted hospital data pushing toward 90–95 or minor downward adjustments if underreporting is corrected, with finalized rates expected in upcoming FluView updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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