Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts sustain an ongoing pre-monsoon heatwave through May 19, with continental air advection and upper-level subsidence driving strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover over Karachi. These conditions support peak temperatures of 35–37 °C on May 17, keeping the 37 °C or higher outcome at the top of trader pricing while sea-breeze inflow from the Arabian Sea and 40–70 % daytime humidity introduce 1–2 °C variability across global ensemble models. Recent model runs show tight clustering around this range, with historical May climatology for the city placing average highs near 34–35 °C. Resolution hinges on official PMD observations tomorrow, so any late shift in steering flow or humidity could quickly reprice the closely matched 36 °C and 37 °C bins.