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Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?

icon for Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?

Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?

<4 milhões de km² 57%

4,2-4,4 milhões km² 13.4%

4,0-4,2 milhões km² 13.0%

4,4-4,6 milhões km² 8.7%

Polymarket

$48,529 Vol.

<4 milhões de km² 57%

4,2-4,4 milhões km² 13.4%

4,0-4,2 milhões km² 13.0%

4,4-4,6 milhões km² 8.7%

Polymarket

$48,529 Vol.

<4 milhões de km²

$25,113 Vol.

57%

4,0-4,2 milhões km²

$3,380 Vol.

13%

4,2-4,4 milhões km²

$1,313 Vol.

13%

4,4-4,6 milhões km²

$1,381 Vol.

9%

4,6-4,8m km²

$2,948 Vol.

6%

4,8-5 milhões km²

$1,199 Vol.

2%

5 milhões+ km²

$13,195 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice extents through spring 2026, including the lowest winter maximum on record at 14.29 million square kilometers in March and second-lowest April values, have set a thin starting point for the melt season. Traders assign 57.5% implied probability to a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers, reflecting accelerating ice loss driven by warmer ocean temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and an anticipated El Niño event that could intensify atmospheric warming. Historical declines averaging 12% per decade and model consensus for continued rapid melt support this outlook, though variability in summer weather patterns and forecast updates from agencies like NOAA could still shift outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,529
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice extents through spring 2026, including the lowest winter maximum on record at 14.29 million square kilometers in March and second-lowest April values, have set a thin starting point for the melt season. Traders assign 57.5% implied probability to a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers, reflecting accelerating ice loss driven by warmer ocean temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and an anticipated El Niño event that could intensify atmospheric warming. Historical declines averaging 12% per decade and model consensus for continued rapid melt support this outlook, though variability in summer weather patterns and forecast updates from agencies like NOAA could still shift outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,529
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<4 milhões de km²" at 57%, followed by "4,0-4,2 milhões km²" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" has generated $48.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" is "<4 milhões de km²" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,0-4,2 milhões km²" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.