Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoExtensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?
Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?
4,4-4,6 milhões km² 36.8%
4,6-4,8m km² 28.2%
4,2-4,4 milhões km² 14.4%
<4 milhões de km² 13%
$67,193 Vol.
$67,193 Vol.
1 out 2026
<4 milhões de km²
13%
4,0-4,2 milhões km²
13%
4,2-4,4 milhões km²
14%
4,4-4,6 milhões km²
37%
4,6-4,8m km²
28%
4,8-5 milhões km²
3%
5 milhões+ km²
6%
4,4-4,6 milhões km² 36.8%
4,6-4,8m km² 28.2%
4,2-4,4 milhões km² 14.4%
<4 milhões de km² 13%
$67,193 Vol.
$67,193 Vol.
1 out 2026
<4 milhões de km²
$30,436 Vol.
13%
4,0-4,2 milhões km²
$6,551 Vol.
13%
4,2-4,4 milhões km²
$2,920 Vol.
14%
4,4-4,6 milhões km²
$3,128 Vol.
37%
4,6-4,8m km²
$6,805 Vol.
28%
4,8-5 milhões km²
$2,898 Vol.
3%
5 milhões+ km²
$14,455 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$67,193Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$67,193Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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