Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now expected to intensify through the peak months, have generated elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, sharply limiting storm organization and intensification. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 7 percent of the long-term average. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75 percent probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period. Persistent hostile upper-level winds, combined with the historical rarity of late-season surges sufficient to reach the 4–6 or higher thresholds, explain why traders have priced 0–3 hurricanes at over 97 percent combined implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos furacões se formarão durante a temporada de furacões do Atlântico em 2026?
Quantos furacões se formarão durante a temporada de furacões do Atlântico em 2026?
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.3%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
35%
1-3
63%
4-6
3%
7+
<1%
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.3%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
$16,790 Vol.
35%
1-3
$5,372 Vol.
63%
4-6
$6,694 Vol.
3%
7+
$2,224 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now expected to intensify through the peak months, have generated elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, sharply limiting storm organization and intensification. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 7 percent of the long-term average. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75 percent probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period. Persistent hostile upper-level winds, combined with the historical rarity of late-season surges sufficient to reach the 4–6 or higher thresholds, explain why traders have priced 0–3 hurricanes at over 97 percent combined implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$31,080Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now expected to intensify through the peak months, have generated elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, sharply limiting storm organization and intensification. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 7 percent of the long-term average. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75 percent probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period. Persistent hostile upper-level winds, combined with the historical rarity of late-season surges sufficient to reach the 4–6 or higher thresholds, explain why traders have priced 0–3 hurricanes at over 97 percent combined implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$31,080Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now expected to intensify through the peak months, have generated elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, sharply limiting storm organization and intensification. As of mid-September, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 7 percent of the long-term average. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75 percent probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period. Persistent hostile upper-level winds, combined with the historical rarity of late-season surges sufficient to reach the 4–6 or higher thresholds, explain why traders have priced 0–3 hurricanes at over 97 percent combined implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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