Forecast models from the National Weather Service and ensemble runs indicate Miami's overnight low on August 23 will likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s°F, consistent with late-summer climatology where high humidity and weak steering winds limit radiational cooling. Afternoon thunderstorm activity, driven by sea-breeze convergence and ample moisture, could enhance cloud cover overnight and nudge the minimum slightly higher toward 80–82°F, while clearer breaks or stronger southeasterly flow might allow readings near 78°F. The tightly clustered market odds around these bins reflect genuine forecast spread in timing and intensity of convection, with traders weighting official guidance and recent model trends that show only modest deviations from the 30-year average low near 77–79°F. Updated NHC and local WFO briefings tonight will refine the final range before resolution.