The Democratic Party of Korea holds a commanding lead in the South Korea by-elections because it controls both the presidency under Lee Jae-myung and the National Assembly, with the president’s approval rating near 60 percent entering the June 3 local and by-election contests. Recent polls show DP candidates ahead in key Seoul and Busan races, reflecting voter emphasis on the opposition People Power Party’s association with the prior administration’s martial-law episode. This combination of incumbency strength, legislative momentum, and opposition weakness has produced the current trader consensus of a 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic Party outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include localized policy disputes or unexpected campaign events, though such developments would need to overcome the ruling party’s structural advantages to alter the result.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleições Parciais da Coreia do Sul: Vencedor da Festa
Eleições Parciais da Coreia do Sul: Vencedor da Festa
Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP) 97.6%
Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP) 2.5%
Partido Reconstruir a Coreia (RKP) <1%
Partido Progressista (PP) <1%
$44,225 Vol.
$44,225 Vol.
3 jun 2026
Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP)
3%
Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP)
98%
Partido Reconstruir a Coreia (RKP)
<1%
Partido Progressista (PP)
<1%
Partido da Reforma (RP)
<1%
Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP) 97.6%
Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP) 2.5%
Partido Reconstruir a Coreia (RKP) <1%
Partido Progressista (PP) <1%
$44,225 Vol.
$44,225 Vol.
3 jun 2026
Partido do Poder do Povo (PPP)
$1,903 Vol.
3%
Partido Democrático da Coreia (DP)
$2,751 Vol.
98%
Partido Reconstruir a Coreia (RKP)
$16,585 Vol.
<1%
Partido Progressista (PP)
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
Partido da Reforma (RP)
$21,873 Vol.
<1%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.The Democratic Party of Korea holds a commanding lead in the South Korea by-elections because it controls both the presidency under Lee Jae-myung and the National Assembly, with the president’s approval rating near 60 percent entering the June 3 local and by-election contests. Recent polls show DP candidates ahead in key Seoul and Busan races, reflecting voter emphasis on the opposition People Power Party’s association with the prior administration’s martial-law episode. This combination of incumbency strength, legislative momentum, and opposition weakness has produced the current trader consensus of a 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic Party outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include localized policy disputes or unexpected campaign events, though such developments would need to overcome the ruling party’s structural advantages to alter the result.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$44,225Data de Término
3 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.The Democratic Party of Korea holds a commanding lead in the South Korea by-elections because it controls both the presidency under Lee Jae-myung and the National Assembly, with the president’s approval rating near 60 percent entering the June 3 local and by-election contests. Recent polls show DP candidates ahead in key Seoul and Busan races, reflecting voter emphasis on the opposition People Power Party’s association with the prior administration’s martial-law episode. This combination of incumbency strength, legislative momentum, and opposition weakness has produced the current trader consensus of a 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic Party outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include localized policy disputes or unexpected campaign events, though such developments would need to overcome the ruling party’s structural advantages to alter the result.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Volume
$44,225Data de Término
3 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party of Korea holds a commanding lead in the South Korea by-elections because it controls both the presidency under Lee Jae-myung and the National Assembly, with the president’s approval rating near 60 percent entering the June 3 local and by-election contests. Recent polls show DP candidates ahead in key Seoul and Busan races, reflecting voter emphasis on the opposition People Power Party’s association with the prior administration’s martial-law episode. This combination of incumbency strength, legislative momentum, and opposition weakness has produced the current trader consensus of a 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic Party outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include localized policy disputes or unexpected campaign events, though such developments would need to overcome the ruling party’s structural advantages to alter the result.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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