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Earnings·TSM

Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

icon for Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?
Earnings·TSM

Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

jul 16

jul 16

90% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
90% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.TSMC's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release on July 16 carries elevated consensus expectations following its Q1 beat, where revenue reached $35.9 billion and gross margins expanded to 66.2% amid robust AI-driven demand for advanced nodes. The company guided Q2 revenue at $39.0–40.2 billion—aligning closely with analyst estimates near $39.5–40.0 billion—and maintained full-year growth above 30%, with capital spending at the high end of prior ranges. Recent monthly sales trends and continued semiconductor sector momentum have priced in strong sequential gains, yet the 55.5% market-implied probability favoring a miss or in-line result reflects the high bar set by prior outperformance and potential volatility around exact EPS delivery or margin realization. Upcoming catalysts include the July 10 monthly sales update and any shifts in broader chip demand signals.

As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$165
Data de Término
16 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.TSMC's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release on July 16 carries elevated consensus expectations following its Q1 beat, where revenue reached $35.9 billion and gross margins expanded to 66.2% amid robust AI-driven demand for advanced nodes. The company guided Q2 revenue at $39.0–40.2 billion—aligning closely with analyst estimates near $39.5–40.0 billion—and maintained full-year growth above 30%, with capital spending at the high end of prior ranges. Recent monthly sales trends and continued semiconductor sector momentum have priced in strong sequential gains, yet the 55.5% market-implied probability favoring a miss or in-line result reflects the high bar set by prior outperformance and potential volatility around exact EPS delivery or margin realization. Upcoming catalysts include the July 10 monthly sales update and any shifts in broader chip demand signals.

As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR.
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$165
Data de Término
16 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 7:45 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 90% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 90¢, the market collectively assigns a 90% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" is 90% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 90% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.