Francis Ngannou’s fractured relationship with UFC president Dana White, stemming from his 2023 departure as heavyweight champion, remains the dominant factor behind the 76.5% “No” consensus. The 39-year-old has competed exclusively outside the promotion since then, securing first-round knockouts against Renan Ferreira in PFL in 2024 and Philipe Lins for MVP in May 2026 before entering free agency. No credible reports indicate active negotiations or roster interest from the UFC, while Ngannou has pursued boxing paydays, real estate projects, and non-UFC MMA events. With only four months left until the December 31, 2026 deadline and his recent form focused elsewhere, traders see limited pathways for a short-term Octagon return.