Ongoing antitrust litigation from 12 states, filed in July 2026, remains the dominant factor behind the 76.7% market-implied odds against a 2026 close. Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery agreed that month to pause the $111 billion deal until a court ruling or June 2027 at latest, after a federal judge set the antitrust trial for March 2027. While the DOJ cleared the transaction in June and most international regulators have approved it, the state coalition's claims of reduced competition in film distribution and cable networks have created a binding delay. Traders see the short window to year-end as insufficient to resolve the litigation or lift the injunction.