Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEspanha 17.0%
França 16.1%
Inglaterra 10.8%
Portugal 10.8%
$1,958,022,100 Vol.
$1,958,022,100 Vol.

Espanha
17%

França
16%

Inglaterra
11%

Portugal
11%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
8%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
4%

Noruega
2%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

Japão
2%

Marrocos
2%

México
1%

Suíça
1%

Turquia
1%

EUA
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Canadá
<1%

Suécia
<1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Egito
<1%

Irã
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Chéquia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Panamá
<1%

Iraque
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%
Espanha 17.0%
França 16.1%
Inglaterra 10.8%
Portugal 10.8%
$1,958,022,100 Vol.
$1,958,022,100 Vol.

Espanha
17%

França
16%

Inglaterra
11%

Portugal
11%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
8%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
4%

Noruega
2%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

Japão
2%

Marrocos
2%

México
1%

Suíça
1%

Turquia
1%

EUA
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Canadá
<1%

Suécia
<1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Egito
<1%

Irã
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Chéquia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Panamá
<1%

Iraque
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions