Recent breakthroughs in large language model reasoning explain the 71% market-implied probability that an AI system secures an IMO gold medal in 2026. OpenAI’s experimental reasoning model and Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think both reached the exact 35-out-of-42 gold cutoff at IMO 2025 by solving five of six problems under timed, closed-book conditions—advancing sharply from DeepMind’s 28-point silver-equivalent performance the prior year. Continued scaling, reinforcement learning on formal proofs, and benchmark convergence tracked in the Stanford AI Index support further gains before the July 2026 contest in Shanghai. Traders weigh the narrow historical margin against possible increases in problem difficulty or evaluation standards, yet view iterative releases from frontier labs as likely to clear the threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAI выиграл золотую медаль IMO в 2026 году?
AI выиграл золотую медаль IMO в 2026 году?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent breakthroughs in large language model reasoning explain the 71% market-implied probability that an AI system secures an IMO gold medal in 2026. OpenAI’s experimental reasoning model and Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think both reached the exact 35-out-of-42 gold cutoff at IMO 2025 by solving five of six problems under timed, closed-book conditions—advancing sharply from DeepMind’s 28-point silver-equivalent performance the prior year. Continued scaling, reinforcement learning on formal proofs, and benchmark convergence tracked in the Stanford AI Index support further gains before the July 2026 contest in Shanghai. Traders weigh the narrow historical margin against possible increases in problem difficulty or evaluation standards, yet view iterative releases from frontier labs as likely to clear the threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Объем
$4,776Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent breakthroughs in large language model reasoning explain the 71% market-implied probability that an AI system secures an IMO gold medal in 2026. OpenAI’s experimental reasoning model and Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think both reached the exact 35-out-of-42 gold cutoff at IMO 2025 by solving five of six problems under timed, closed-book conditions—advancing sharply from DeepMind’s 28-point silver-equivalent performance the prior year. Continued scaling, reinforcement learning on formal proofs, and benchmark convergence tracked in the Stanford AI Index support further gains before the July 2026 contest in Shanghai. Traders weigh the narrow historical margin against possible increases in problem difficulty or evaluation standards, yet view iterative releases from frontier labs as likely to clear the threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Объем
$4,776Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent breakthroughs in large language model reasoning explain the 71% market-implied probability that an AI system secures an IMO gold medal in 2026. OpenAI’s experimental reasoning model and Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think both reached the exact 35-out-of-42 gold cutoff at IMO 2025 by solving five of six problems under timed, closed-book conditions—advancing sharply from DeepMind’s 28-point silver-equivalent performance the prior year. Continued scaling, reinforcement learning on formal proofs, and benchmark convergence tracked in the Stanford AI Index support further gains before the July 2026 contest in Shanghai. Traders weigh the narrow historical margin against possible increases in problem difficulty or evaluation standards, yet view iterative releases from frontier labs as likely to clear the threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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