Traders assign an 80% implied probability to the Bank of Japan delivering a 25 basis point policy rate hike at its June 16 meeting, reflecting the board’s hawkish 6-3 split in April and mounting upside risks to inflation from Middle East energy shocks. March core CPI accelerated to 1.8%, prompting the central bank to upgrade its fiscal 2026 forecast, while yen weakness near 157 has sustained pressure for normalization from the current 0.75% level. Recent economist polls show two-thirds expecting the 1.0% target by end-June, though softer growth data or de-escalation in geopolitical tensions remain the main swing factors that could still support a no-change outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение на 25 б.п. 79.8%
Без изменений 20%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. 1.3%
Снижение ставок <1%
$114,871 Объем
$114,871 Объем
Снижение ставок
1%
Без изменений
20%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
80%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 79.8%
Без изменений 20%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. 1.3%
Снижение ставок <1%
$114,871 Объем
$114,871 Объем
Снижение ставок
1%
Без изменений
20%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
80%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 80% implied probability to the Bank of Japan delivering a 25 basis point policy rate hike at its June 16 meeting, reflecting the board’s hawkish 6-3 split in April and mounting upside risks to inflation from Middle East energy shocks. March core CPI accelerated to 1.8%, prompting the central bank to upgrade its fiscal 2026 forecast, while yen weakness near 157 has sustained pressure for normalization from the current 0.75% level. Recent economist polls show two-thirds expecting the 1.0% target by end-June, though softer growth data or de-escalation in geopolitical tensions remain the main swing factors that could still support a no-change outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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