Traders assign a dominant 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish shift following the April 28 policy decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike amid upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.8%. Escalating energy prices from Middle East tensions and yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have reinforced expectations for normalization, while a Reuters poll of economists shows nearly two-thirds anticipating the move by end-June. Upcoming May inflation data and any further board communications remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение на 25 б.п. 79.8%
Без изменений 20%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. 1.1%
Снижение ставок <1%
$115,192 Объем
$115,192 Объем
Снижение ставок
1%
Без изменений
20%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
80%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 79.8%
Без изменений 20%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. 1.1%
Снижение ставок <1%
$115,192 Объем
$115,192 Объем
Снижение ставок
1%
Без изменений
20%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
80%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a dominant 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate increase at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish shift following the April 28 policy decision. That meeting produced a 6-3 vote to hold the policy rate at 0.75%, with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike amid upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.8%. Escalating energy prices from Middle East tensions and yen weakness near 157 against the dollar have reinforced expectations for normalization, while a Reuters poll of economists shows nearly two-thirds anticipating the move by end-June. Upcoming May inflation data and any further board communications remain key swing factors ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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