Trader consensus for a "blue wave"—Democrats securing 218 or more House seats and Senate control post-2026 midterms—stems from their widening generic congressional ballot lead, hitting D+6.1 in Nate Silver's May 14 average, the cycle's first time at that margin, up from D+5.9 the prior week. Emerson's April 24-26 poll showed Democrats ahead 50%-40% among likely voters, fueled by independents, women, and Hispanics. President Trump's net -16 approval, with 53% deeming U.S. military action in Iran a failure, echoes 2006 dynamics highlighted in Time's May 5 analysis amid 38 GOP House retirements and Democratic special election gains. Historical midterm penalties for incumbents further tilt odds, though redistricting setbacks like Virginia's map ruling temper expectations ahead of November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$42,890 Объем
$42,890 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$42,890 Объем
$42,890 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus for a "blue wave"—Democrats securing 218 or more House seats and Senate control post-2026 midterms—stems from their widening generic congressional ballot lead, hitting D+6.1 in Nate Silver's May 14 average, the cycle's first time at that margin, up from D+5.9 the prior week. Emerson's April 24-26 poll showed Democrats ahead 50%-40% among likely voters, fueled by independents, women, and Hispanics. President Trump's net -16 approval, with 53% deeming U.S. military action in Iran a failure, echoes 2006 dynamics highlighted in Time's May 5 analysis amid 38 GOP House retirements and Democratic special election gains. Historical midterm penalties for incumbents further tilt odds, though redistricting setbacks like Virginia's map ruling temper expectations ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$42,890Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus for a "blue wave"—Democrats securing 218 or more House seats and Senate control post-2026 midterms—stems from their widening generic congressional ballot lead, hitting D+6.1 in Nate Silver's May 14 average, the cycle's first time at that margin, up from D+5.9 the prior week. Emerson's April 24-26 poll showed Democrats ahead 50%-40% among likely voters, fueled by independents, women, and Hispanics. President Trump's net -16 approval, with 53% deeming U.S. military action in Iran a failure, echoes 2006 dynamics highlighted in Time's May 5 analysis amid 38 GOP House retirements and Democratic special election gains. Historical midterm penalties for incumbents further tilt odds, though redistricting setbacks like Virginia's map ruling temper expectations ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Объем
$42,890Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for a "blue wave"—Democrats securing 218 or more House seats and Senate control post-2026 midterms—stems from their widening generic congressional ballot lead, hitting D+6.1 in Nate Silver's May 14 average, the cycle's first time at that margin, up from D+5.9 the prior week. Emerson's April 24-26 poll showed Democrats ahead 50%-40% among likely voters, fueled by independents, women, and Hispanics. President Trump's net -16 approval, with 53% deeming U.S. military action in Iran a failure, echoes 2006 dynamics highlighted in Time's May 5 analysis amid 38 GOP House retirements and Democratic special election gains. Historical midterm penalties for incumbents further tilt odds, though redistricting setbacks like Virginia's map ruling temper expectations ahead of November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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