Traders see the 5.00-5.49% band as the most likely landing zone for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation because recent monthly prints have shown persistent upward pressure from food and fuel prices linked to global energy shocks. The central bank’s Focus survey currently projects year-end 2026 inflation near 4.36%, yet markets are pricing in a higher path given de-anchored expectations and the Copom’s decision to trim the Selic rate only gradually to 14.50%. With the leading buckets separated by just a few percentage points, small shifts in upcoming IPCA releases or fiscal developments could quickly reorder probabilities ahead of the year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5,00–5,49% 27.3%
4,50–4,99% 23.9%
5,50–5,99% 22.7%
4,00–4,49% 8.1%
$57,305 Объем
$57,305 Объем
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
6%
3,50–3,99%
2%
4,00–4,49%
8%
4,50–4,99%
17%
5,00–5,49%
28%
5,50–5,99%
23%
6,00–6,49%
4%
6,50–6,99%
3%
7,00%+
11%
5,00–5,49% 27.3%
4,50–4,99% 23.9%
5,50–5,99% 22.7%
4,00–4,49% 8.1%
$57,305 Объем
$57,305 Объем
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
6%
3,50–3,99%
2%
4,00–4,49%
8%
4,50–4,99%
17%
5,00–5,49%
28%
5,50–5,99%
23%
6,00–6,49%
4%
6,50–6,99%
3%
7,00%+
11%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see the 5.00-5.49% band as the most likely landing zone for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation because recent monthly prints have shown persistent upward pressure from food and fuel prices linked to global energy shocks. The central bank’s Focus survey currently projects year-end 2026 inflation near 4.36%, yet markets are pricing in a higher path given de-anchored expectations and the Copom’s decision to trim the Selic rate only gradually to 14.50%. With the leading buckets separated by just a few percentage points, small shifts in upcoming IPCA releases or fiscal developments could quickly reorder probabilities ahead of the year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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