**Proposition 43 on California’s November 3, 2026 ballot would amend the state constitution to require a two-thirds voter approval for citizen-initiated local special taxes, aligning them with the existing threshold for legislatively referred measures and prohibiting certain charter-city real estate transfer taxes.** Traders assign a 64.5% probability to rejection, reflecting limited early momentum for the measure despite its legislative referral and strong bipartisan passage in the Assembly and Senate in June 2026 as part of a compromise that removed a competing initiative. Opposition campaigns, backed by groups focused on local services such as fire protection, transit, and healthcare, argue the change would empower a minority of voters to block revenue measures and constrain funding options. Supporters, including taxpayer organizations, frame it as restoring constitutional protections originally tied to Proposition 13. With roughly $1.4 million raised for the “yes” side and $500,000 for “no” as of recent filings, and no public polls showing decisive support, the current odds align with historical patterns in which measures tightening tax rules face headwinds in a state where many recent local tax initiatives have passed with simple majorities. Key upcoming factors include fall campaign spending, endorsements, and voter turnout dynamics in a midterm environment crowded with other propositions on taxes, housing, and healthcare.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПредложение о повышении порога голосования по местному налогу в Калифорнии
Да
Да
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Proposition 43 on California’s November 3, 2026 ballot would amend the state constitution to require a two-thirds voter approval for citizen-initiated local special taxes, aligning them with the existing threshold for legislatively referred measures and prohibiting certain charter-city real estate transfer taxes.** Traders assign a 64.5% probability to rejection, reflecting limited early momentum for the measure despite its legislative referral and strong bipartisan passage in the Assembly and Senate in June 2026 as part of a compromise that removed a competing initiative. Opposition campaigns, backed by groups focused on local services such as fire protection, transit, and healthcare, argue the change would empower a minority of voters to block revenue measures and constrain funding options. Supporters, including taxpayer organizations, frame it as restoring constitutional protections originally tied to Proposition 13. With roughly $1.4 million raised for the “yes” side and $500,000 for “no” as of recent filings, and no public polls showing decisive support, the current odds align with historical patterns in which measures tightening tax rules face headwinds in a state where many recent local tax initiatives have passed with simple majorities. Key upcoming factors include fall campaign spending, endorsements, and voter turnout dynamics in a midterm environment crowded with other propositions on taxes, housing, and healthcare.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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