Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13 12:00 PM ET, driven by xtracker data logging 46 posts through early May 13 (daily average 23 over two days), aligning with his recently subdued activity amid high-profile travel. Musk's viral announcement this morning—"On my way to Beijing in Air Force One" alongside President Trump and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—signals diplomatic distractions curbing his usual rapid-fire tweeting on culture wars, tech, and memes, a pattern below his prior weekly averages of 15-25 posts daily. With the resolution window closing at noon ET, an upset to 65+ would require an improbable late surge, defying his current jet-lagged, summit-focused momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено40-64 100.0%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
$1,959,261 Объем
$1,959,261 Объем
13 мая 2026 г.
40-64
100%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 100.0%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
$1,959,261 Объем
$1,959,261 Объем
13 мая 2026 г.
40-64
$328,277 Объем
100%
65-89
$445,606 Объем
<1%
90-114
$534,037 Объем
<1%
115-139
$169,525 Объем
<1%
140-164
$65,957 Объем
<1%
165-189
$44,475 Объем
<1%
190-214
$22,783 Объем
<1%
215-239
$17,852 Объем
<1%
240+
$15,875 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13 12:00 PM ET, driven by xtracker data logging 46 posts through early May 13 (daily average 23 over two days), aligning with his recently subdued activity amid high-profile travel. Musk's viral announcement this morning—"On my way to Beijing in Air Force One" alongside President Trump and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—signals diplomatic distractions curbing his usual rapid-fire tweeting on culture wars, tech, and memes, a pattern below his prior weekly averages of 15-25 posts daily. With the resolution window closing at noon ET, an upset to 65+ would require an improbable late surge, defying his current jet-lagged, summit-focused momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: May 9, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Объем
$1,959,261Дата окончания
13 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 9, 2026, 12:48 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13 12:00 PM ET, driven by xtracker data logging 46 posts through early May 13 (daily average 23 over two days), aligning with his recently subdued activity amid high-profile travel. Musk's viral announcement this morning—"On my way to Beijing in Air Force One" alongside President Trump and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—signals diplomatic distractions curbing his usual rapid-fire tweeting on culture wars, tech, and memes, a pattern below his prior weekly averages of 15-25 posts daily. With the resolution window closing at noon ET, an upset to 65+ would require an improbable late surge, defying his current jet-lagged, summit-focused momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$1,959,261Дата окончания
13 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 9, 2026, 12:48 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Yes
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13 12:00 PM ET, driven by xtracker data logging 46 posts through early May 13 (daily average 23 over two days), aligning with his recently subdued activity amid high-profile travel. Musk's viral announcement this morning—"On my way to Beijing in Air Force One" alongside President Trump and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—signals diplomatic distractions curbing his usual rapid-fire tweeting on culture wars, tech, and memes, a pattern below his prior weekly averages of 15-25 posts daily. With the resolution window closing at noon ET, an upset to 65+ would require an improbable late surge, defying his current jet-lagged, summit-focused momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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