Traders see the 880-919 range holding a slim edge at 12.4% implied probability because Elon Musk’s current posting cadence on X remains elevated amid ongoing xAI model launches and SpaceX Starship preparations, with recent daily volumes tracking near 25 posts when replies and threads are included. The tight clustering among the 800-959 buckets reflects uncertainty over whether executive demands at Tesla or fresh viral memes could push totals higher or trigger a mid-month slowdown. Historical patterns show Musk’s output often spikes around major product updates or public controversies, creating the competitive dynamics that keep these mid-800s ranges neck-and-neck with lower 700s and upper 900s alternatives. Watch for any Starship test or Grok feature rollout in the final two weeks of May, as those moments have repeatedly driven engagement surges that shift the month-end total.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено880-919 12.3%
800-839 10.9%
840–879 10.0%
920-959 8.9%
$2,875,846 Объем
$2,875,846 Объем
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420–439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460–479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580-599
1%
600–619
1%
620–639
2%
640-659
2%
660–679
4%
680-699
4%
700-719
3%
720-739
4%
740-759
8%
760–779
6%
780-799
6%
800-839
11%
840–879
10%
880-919
12%
920-959
9%
960-999
8%
1000-1039
5%
1040–1079
4%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
1%
1160–1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360–1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440–1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
880-919 12.3%
800-839 10.9%
840–879 10.0%
920-959 8.9%
$2,875,846 Объем
$2,875,846 Объем
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420–439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460–479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580-599
1%
600–619
1%
620–639
2%
640-659
2%
660–679
4%
680-699
4%
700-719
3%
720-739
4%
740-759
8%
760–779
6%
780-799
6%
800-839
11%
840–879
10%
880-919
12%
920-959
9%
960-999
8%
1000-1039
5%
1040–1079
4%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
1%
1160–1199
<1%
1200-1239
<1%
1240-1279
<1%
1280-1319
<1%
1320-1359
<1%
1360–1399
<1%
1400-1439
<1%
1440–1479
<1%
1480-1519
<1%
1520-1559
<1%
1560-1599
<1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
<1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 880-919 range holding a slim edge at 12.4% implied probability because Elon Musk’s current posting cadence on X remains elevated amid ongoing xAI model launches and SpaceX Starship preparations, with recent daily volumes tracking near 25 posts when replies and threads are included. The tight clustering among the 800-959 buckets reflects uncertainty over whether executive demands at Tesla or fresh viral memes could push totals higher or trigger a mid-month slowdown. Historical patterns show Musk’s output often spikes around major product updates or public controversies, creating the competitive dynamics that keep these mid-800s ranges neck-and-neck with lower 700s and upper 900s alternatives. Watch for any Starship test or Grok feature rollout in the final two weeks of May, as those moments have repeatedly driven engagement surges that shift the month-end total.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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