Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Elon Musk posting volume for May 14-16 at under 40 posts (50.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (37.5%), reflecting his recent quiet streak and ongoing travel disruptions. Elon posted just 5 times through early May 11-13, a sharp drop from prior weeks' 100+ tallies, as he boarded Air Force One with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for a high-profile China trip announced May 13—likely curtailing X activity amid jet lag, meetings, and spotty connectivity despite Starlink. Historical patterns show spikes during feuds or launches, but no major catalysts loom; traders eye trip duration and any Tesla/xAI news as swing factors before the May 17 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновленоменее 40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$202,535 Объем
$202,535 Объем
16 мая 2026 г.
менее 40
51%
40-64
38%
65-89
9%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140–164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
менее 40 51%
40-64 38%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$202,535 Объем
$202,535 Объем
16 мая 2026 г.
менее 40
$41,005 Объем
51%
40-64
$12,703 Объем
38%
65-89
$46,342 Объем
9%
90-114
$11,545 Объем
2%
115-139
$10,065 Объем
1%
140–164
$9,011 Объем
1%
165-189
$18,910 Объем
<1%
190-214
$16,078 Объем
<1%
215-239
$15,766 Объем
<1%
240+
$21,146 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Elon Musk posting volume for May 14-16 at under 40 posts (50.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (37.5%), reflecting his recent quiet streak and ongoing travel disruptions. Elon posted just 5 times through early May 11-13, a sharp drop from prior weeks' 100+ tallies, as he boarded Air Force One with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for a high-profile China trip announced May 13—likely curtailing X activity amid jet lag, meetings, and spotty connectivity despite Starlink. Historical patterns show spikes during feuds or launches, but no major catalysts loom; traders eye trip duration and any Tesla/xAI news as swing factors before the May 17 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Объем
$202,535Дата окончания
16 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Elon Musk posting volume for May 14-16 at under 40 posts (50.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (37.5%), reflecting his recent quiet streak and ongoing travel disruptions. Elon posted just 5 times through early May 11-13, a sharp drop from prior weeks' 100+ tallies, as he boarded Air Force One with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for a high-profile China trip announced May 13—likely curtailing X activity amid jet lag, meetings, and spotty connectivity despite Starlink. Historical patterns show spikes during feuds or launches, but no major catalysts loom; traders eye trip duration and any Tesla/xAI news as swing factors before the May 17 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$202,535Дата окончания
16 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Elon Musk posting volume for May 14-16 at under 40 posts (50.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (37.5%), reflecting his recent quiet streak and ongoing travel disruptions. Elon posted just 5 times through early May 11-13, a sharp drop from prior weeks' 100+ tallies, as he boarded Air Force One with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for a high-profile China trip announced May 13—likely curtailing X activity amid jet lag, meetings, and spotty connectivity despite Starlink. Historical patterns show spikes during feuds or launches, but no major catalysts loom; traders eye trip duration and any Tesla/xAI news as swing factors before the May 17 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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