Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, enters the October 25 second-round runoff with a commanding polling lead over Leandro Grass (PT), reflected in trader consensus favoring her reelection. She reached the runoff after securing 49.93% of valid votes in the first round on October 4, narrowly missing an outright win. Recent Datafolha and Correio-Opinião surveys show her at 54–60% of valid votes against Grass’s 37–41%, with approval of her administration near 52% and roughly 90% of voters reporting firm choices. Her path draws consolidated support from center-right and evangelical voters plus alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro, while Grass benefits from PT and Lula backing but shows limited crossover. Stable trends since the first round and high voter conviction leave few evident late shifts that would alter the outcome.